CFO Intelligence Magazine – Fall 2025
Tani Fukui, Ph.D.
Macroeconomist, Director,
MetLife Investment Management
At the time of this writing, I expect a recession to come about within the year. I may change my mind as the facts change, but with initial salvos like universal tariffs and high tariffs on China, the economic effects are likely quite ugly.
That’s the bad news. The good news is that there are multiple possible off-ramps that could lead us away from a recession. Not all of these need to happen, but if all five happen, I’d be quite confident that we can avoid a recession.
PRESIDENT TRUMP MAKES (A LOT OF) DEALS.
The easiest way out of a recession is for President Trump to cut a lot of trade deals. Most important are the reciprocal tariffs that were imposed on Europe, Japan, and others on April 2 and suspended on April 9. Businesses need the threat of new tariffs to significantly fall in order to thrive. Also important would be a détente with China.